Методология и практика социально-экономического прогнозирования

Abstract

The necessity of social and economic prognostication in the process of the regional indicative planning has been substantiated in the article. Methodological bases have been presented and the problems of regional prognostication in Ukraine have been defined. The brief review of qualitative and formal quantitative methods has been given. The research of the dynamics of the gross incomes of Ukrainian citizens has been conducted and the prognostication for 2013, applying the Holt-Winters model and Box-Jenkins ARIMA model, has been obtained. The comparison of the obtained results and the factual data confirms the accuracy of the prognostication and the appropriateness of the formal methods usage to identify the aim indicators that define the structure of the indicative plan.