Модель реагирования динамики объема ВВП на изменение условий экспортно-импортной деятельности

Abstract

Выдвинута гипотеза, что опережающая динамика цен на экспорт товаров и услуг оказывает влияние на динамику объема ВВП с лаговым сдвигом.

The hypothesis is made that advancing dynamics of the prices of export of goods and services has impact on dynamics of volume of gross domestic product with lags shift. Check of the made hypothesis is executed by means of development of the system of the simultaneous equations in the structural and given forms. The assessment of parameters of the given system of the simultaneous equations is executed; identification of their parameters is carried out. By results of unambiguous identification of parameters of the equations values of parameters of a structural form of the simultaneous equations are found in a reduced form. By results of the executed modeling and the analysis on materials of Republic of Belarus for 2000-2011 the made hypothesis was confirmed.